An internal assessment carried out by the Congress on the polling pattern in the recently concluded Punjab elections has shown that the party may get only 40 of the 117 seats in the assembly elections.
The party has been carrying out constituency-wise assessment for the past few days, after low polling percentage made predicting outcome of the polls complicated and uncertain.
Senior state and central leaders have been analysing the feedback that has been provided from the ground vis-à-vis the expected poll results.
What is also worrying for the party is that the not-so-impressive results could also give rise to some rebel leaders.
“Keeping the flock together will be a big challenge in case we don’t end up with seats closer to the majority mark,” said a senior leader.
Already, there are indications of leaders trying to “pin” the blame on each other.
Amritsar MP Gurjeet Aujla has already made public statements against PCC chief Navjot Singh Sidhu, accusing him of being indifferent to local leadership in Amritsar.
Also interesting would be the stand that former Punjab unit chief Sunil Jakhar takes post elections in case of a debacle.
He has already announced that he would quit active politics after the polls.
Analysts say post elections, Sidhu will also play an important role in deciding the fate of the party in the coming days.
“Look at the way he has chosen to stay silent post the elections.
He senses that the party may not have done well and wants to wait till the actual results come out before he goes for the kill,” said a leader.
Interestingly, while senior leaders, including chief minister Charanjit Singh Channi, have been holding interactions to analyse the polling trends, Sidhu has chosen to stay away.
“The party has been gathering feedback from local level leaders. Inputs on performance of the Shiromani Akali Dal-Bahujan Samaj Party combine, BJP-led NDA alliance and AAP were also sought.
But the PCC chief seems to be missing the process,” said senior leader.
WORRY FOR AAP
A significant 5.45% drop in the voter turnout for the 2022 Punjab polls has left political parties and analysts baffled.
The state witnessed the lowest voter turnout of the past two decades this time. Compared to 77.40% in 2017, the state recorded 71.95% this time.
In 2002, it was 65.14%, when in a tight contest with the SAD-BJP combine, the Congress had come to power.
More than any other party, the low voter turnout seems to have taken the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) by surprise, with analysts claiming the undercurrent of support for the party could have been just hype.
Opinion polls had indicated AAP would be the winner.
In the politically significant Malwa region, which had emerged as stronghold for AAP, the voter turnout was disappointing.
Of the 28 assembly constituencies falling under south Malwa’s seven districts, 50% seats witnessed more than a 5% point drop in the voter turnout compared to 2017 polls.
In the last election, AAP had gained substantially in the Malwa region and this time, too, was seen as the epicentre of the AAP’s undercurrent.
“The numbers show that non-voters gave their verdict that there was no alternative available for change,” said senior political analyst Dr Pramod Kumar from Institute for Development and Communication.
But senior AAP leader Harpal Cheema denied the party’s chances would be impacted by the low voter turnout.
But data suggests otherwise. Abohar and Ferozepur City were the only segments in the region which saw a rise in polling by 3.71% and 1.25%, respectively.
Nihal Singh Wala constituency held by AAP’s Manjit Singh Bilaspur recorded a drop of 7.85%, the biggest in the region.
It was followed by Ferozepur Rural, being represented by Congress’ Satkar Kaur Gehri, where 7.33% less votes were polled than last elections.
Leaders attributed it to factors ranging from disillusionment with the poll process to low participation of NRIs in the process.
“The pandemic, coupled with high air fares, acted as a deterrent to these voters.
During last time, a big chunk of our votes came from this segment,” said a senior AAP leader.
Although Congress leaders claimed a low voter turnout suggests an absent anti-incumbency, insiders say the leaders, too, seemed unsure.
Even in the politically significant Jalalabad seat from where SAD president Sukhbir Singh Badalwas contesting, almost a 6% drop was witnessed at 80% turnout.
